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Indian economy likely to grow at 6.3% in FY24
October 04, 2023
The Indian economy is estimated to grow at 6.3 per cent in the current financial year 2023-24, showing resilience despite elevated inflation and global headwinds, the World Bank said in its India Development Update released Tuesday. Though the growth estimate by the Bank has been retained from its earlier update in April, it is 20 basis points lower than the 6.5 per cent growth estimate both by the government and the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) for FY24.
The World Bank, however, raised the inflation forecast for FY24 to 5.9 per cent from 5.2 per cent in its April update, citing risks from the monsoon deficiency and its evolving impact on prices, El Niño phenomena, and global supply chain disruptions. With inflation expected to remain sticky, the Monetary Policy Committee of the RBI, which will begin its meeting from Wednesday, is expected to keep the repo rate unchanged.
“While the spike in headline inflation may temporarily constrain consumption, we project a moderation. Overall conditions will remain conducive for private investment,” Dhruv Sharma, Senior Economist, World Bank and the lead author of the report, said.
Adverse weather conditions contributed to a spike in inflation in recent months, with headline inflation rising to 7.8 per cent in July due to a surge in prices of food items like wheat and rice. Inflation is expected to decrease gradually as food prices normalise and government measures increase the supply of key commodities, the Bank said.
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